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offgrid View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Topic: Urgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open
    Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 4:43pm
Originally posted by Olddawgsrule

Taking Glue's warning and believing the article is way over my head, so I'll ask.

First I heard of mutations of the virus. Leads to many questions but I'll limit them:

Mutation happens by? My thought is it mutates as it succeeds through a person of maybe a better immune system? Or maybe a cultural thing? Differences in what we eat?

These mutations: This means if you had a strain, you can get another, correct? Eight defined by 29 individuals... Any reports out of NYC and what they are finding? Are we to expect 'several' more variations (as in dozens). Did H1N1 mutate like this?

Are any of these variations becoming air-borne?  



Mutations occur because of replication errors that aren't caught and corrected. You can kinda think of it like copying some data you get over the internet. For life forms other than viruses (viruses aren't really "alive") data is stored in DNA. When a cell divides the DNA splits in half and recreates two DNA strands, in theory identical. But errors do occur. In DNA replication there is error checking to be sure all the errors are corrected. Its like getting a packet of data over the internet along with a check sum which your computer can compare to one it creates itself to see if all the data came through correctly. If it didn't it tells the server which sent the data to try again. So in DNA based organisms the error rate is very low and mutations are few and far between.

Viruses are based on RNA rather than DNA. In RNA replication the error correction is much less if at all. So there are a lot more errors and mutations happen much faster. That many errors would kill a complex organism because there is so much data involved, but viruses are so simple that they mostly survive the errors and mutate very fast.  

The more infected ppl there are the more virus particles there are to mutate. Each strain can mutate again at any time, creating more strains. Some mutations are successful and some aren't.

Coronavirus has more data than most viruses, about 2x what flu has, so it does some error checking (its beyond my knowledge as to how), so it mutates relatively slowly for a virus. The rapid mutation of the flu  (like H1N1) is why flu vaccines can be pretty ineffective some years, the folks making the vaccines have to guess which varieties will be prevalent next winter and there are so many changing so fast that its hit or miss. 

As far as we know, all the Sars-CoV-2 strains are "airborne" in that they can remain active for some time in droplets sneezed, coughed, or just exhaled by infected ppl. In the literature there is a very specific definition of "airborne" which causes confusion. "Airborne" in the epidemiology definition means that the virus can survive in a dried up aerosol which used to be a droplet.  There isn't anything I've read that says that that happens with Sars-CoV-2.  

But it really doesn't matter to you if you get infected by a moist air puff from a sick person who is breathing heavily or get it from a dried up aerosol. So, the "new" recommendation to wear a mask will help stop the spread either way.




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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 5:14pm
Thank you OG. Clearly stated.

Has the effective range of it's transmission changed? Basically, what was a 6ft rule changed to 20ft (for example only) or a mask (that's air-borne to me..)? 


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 5:37pm
No one has officially stated that the 6 foot distance has formally changed that I've heard.  I doubt that will happen. There is the study from MIT I shared that has demonstrated virus viability up to distances of around 27 ft under certain conditions. There is a debate about how likely that is but no one has said its not possible either. 

My take is that there is no magic number, why would there be? The likelihood just decreases with distance and increases with how enclosed the space is and the force with which the infected person is blowing out droplets, be it sneezing, coughing, singing in a choir, or simply talking. 

Since no one is really sure if they're infected or not for the first couple of days (or for weeks for asymptomatic ppl, which looks like its at least 25%), if we all wear masks, even poorly fitting homemade ones, we are reducing the amount of moisture droplets we are expelling and keeping other ppl safer. We are also creating a barrier that keeps us safer from other ppl's droplets at the same time.

So its all good, no downside unless you contaminate yourself taking the mask on and off with your hands. So wash your hands before and after and don't touch your face.  When I started wearing a mask I immediately noticed when I was touching my face and stopped. 

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 6:07pm
Another way to look at it, is that "errors" in replication are not really "errors", but rather experiments by the organism to see which mutations give the virus its optimum survivability as a species.  Most mutations are deadends and don't really help the organism extend its viability.  Many cause problems and kills off that lineage.  

Ideally, for a virus, the perfect balance is to be very contagious but to generally not kill the host, at least too quickly.  HIV is a good example of this kind of success.  It insidiously infects, spreads, then, years later, kills the host.  Ebola is on the opposite end of the chart.  It is highly contagious, but kills its host so quickly that there is little opportunity to spread it around.  In the long run, ebola will probably become less lethal when mutations occur that allow the host to live longer and it can spread to more hosts/victims.

Covid-19 looks to be one of the viruses that is on the more successful end of the chart, infecting insidiously, then killing only a relatively small percentage, 1% to maybe 3% of its hosts(?).  It doesn't have a lot of evolutionary pressure to develop more virulent mutations, though it certainly could just by random RNA changes.  It's looking like, unless we develop a vaccine, Covid-19, in its various forms, will be around a long time.  Probably most of us will get it at one point or another.  Hopefully, as it mutates, it will be come less deadly for those who are currently vulnerable.


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 7:06pm
Ok but to be clear the optimization occurs by natural selection not intent.  The mutations really are just replication errors. Over time the more successful mutations thrive and the less successful ones don't. The end result is roughly the same as it would be if the virus was "trying" to optimize itself.  

Once humans have developed antibodies to Sars-CoV-2 either naturally or via a vaccine the successful virus mutations will be the ones that don't trigger those antibodies. That's what's constantly happening with seasonal flu and why there are different flu shots every year. Probably we'll end up in the same place with Covid-19, but hopefully with less constant churn because coronaviruses mutate more slowly than flu does. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Apr 2020 at 9:53pm
My guess for safe distance is based upon how many virus particles make it to another host factored by the square of the distance or something. If you get x particles at some distance, every time you double the distance, you get 1/(2-squared) the particle load. At some distance, (arbitrarily set at 6 feet) the particle (AKA viral) load is considered low enough that a significant portion of the populace will not get enough to become infected. Can you go further, and get a smaller load? Sure, but once the load goes below whatever the contagious amount is, it probably doesn't matter.

I also think that the virus may have some level of air contagion, but it doesn't survive in the air long enough to be a significant factor. The fact that it can survive on some surfaces for many days or even a week or two is the bigger contagion factor. 

Wash your hands folks.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Apr 2020 at 8:23am
Well, the cdc’s own website says that flu is transmitted mostly person to person through droplets in the air.,.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/spread.htm

Most experts in Asia apparently say the same for Sar-CoV-2. So, I don’t see where the statement we hear that surface contamination is worse comes from. Is there a study showing that, or is it coming from the confusion regarding the technical definition of “airborne” and the arbitrary 5 micron droplet size cutoff? The WHO website spends a lot of time discussing that issue, but in the end it’s back to droplets spread through the air and surface contamination.

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

Or, could it be a case of if all you have is a hammer everything is a nail (we don’t have enough masks so let’s emphasize telling ppl how important it is to wash their hands)? Hmmm.

BTW, I’m not saying NOT to wash you hands. Do that AND wear a mask. And do both correctly, it’s not that hard.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Apr 2020 at 9:14am
What seems to be clear is that this virus spreads in at least two ways: through the air and from contaminated surfaces.  The whole idea of washing one's hands and sanitizing the stuff you touch, as well as wearing some sort of face mask, is to reduce the amount of virus entering your body.  How much "viral load" is needed to infect is an open question and it depends on the individual.  Some are more vulnerable and some not so much.  It also depends on the condition of the virus particles that enter.  Some are weaker and some are more robust.    

The best we can do is try to reduce, if we can't eliminate, contact with the virus particles.  Wearing a face mask and washing hands and sanitizing the stuff we touch helps considerably.  Staying away from other people also helps stop the spread, since we never know who is a carrier.

As to whether there is intentionality or not in mutations is not really an issue.  The fact is mutations are part of the normal/natural process of all life forms and occur regularly, whether in more complicated organism or in the world of viruses.  It's the ultimate trial and error process in a life system that includes all living and semi-living organisms, and, perhaps, even the formation of elementary proteins.  Some promote the survival of a particular organism and some don't.  It just is.  When we use terms like "errors" or "experiments" all we are really doing is using anthropomorphic terminology to help express a concept to make it a little more understandable.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Apr 2020 at 10:23am
Is the nCOV airborne? It's not a black and white issue. According to the studies followed, you can take air samples in the room with a COVID-19 patient and not pick up SARS-CoV-2 particles. There ARE hotspots though. In particular in closed spaces with little ventilation (like a bathroom). Lesson learned is to close the lid on the toilet before you flush because the flushing will aerosolize the SARS-CoV-2 particles.

If you have 21 minutes, you can listen to the discussion here.

If you don't have 21 minutes, the transcript can be read here.

Wash your hands.

Wear a mask to protect others (just in case you are infected and don't know it).
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Apr 2020 at 11:55am
Originally posted by lostagain


As to whether there is intentionality or not in mutations is not really an issue.  The fact is mutations are part of the normal/natural process of all life forms and occur regularly, whether in more complicated organism or in the world of viruses.  It's the ultimate trial and error process in a life system that includes all living and semi-living organisms, and, perhaps, even the formation of elementary proteins.  Some promote the survival of a particular organism and some don't.  It just is.  When we use terms like "errors" or "experiments" all we are really doing is using anthropomorphic terminology to help express a concept to make it a little more understandable.

Sorry to disagree but an "error" in RNA molecular biology means something specific. RNA encodes using 4 bases, G, U, A, and C. G pairs with and C and U pairs with A. If something different happens that is a replication error. The errors will be there or not independent of what we humans call them.  Call it whatever you want, the chemistry doesn't care. Nothing anthropomorphic about it.

The term "experiment" on the other hand, certainly is a human construct, with a meaning only relevant to human behavior, which is why it has nothing to do with how viruses change and evolve. 
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