Urgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open
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Printed Date: 19 Apr 2024 at 3:06am
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Topic: Urgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open
Posted By: Pod_Geek
Subject: Urgent Petition To Keep RV Campgrounds Open
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 11:53am
The Immediate Consequences of Campground ClosuresState campground closures are forcing thousands of RVers out of their campgrounds to find other accommodations. Exasperating the issue, we are in the middle of Spring Break (now through early April depending on the school) and the busy snowbird season. It could be extremely difficult to find alternate campsites at local, federal and private campgrounds. This sets up a situation where RVers will have some difficult choices – right now. If they are unable to drive home, drive to a friend or family’s home, or secure an alternate campsite, they could be stranded. This doesn’t take into account the 1-million RVers who live full-time in an RV. The concept of living full-time in an RV (living in an RV and not owning or renting a house or apartment) may be unfamiliar to the very authorities making the decision to close campgrounds. In the event of mass campground closures, full-time RVers are the most likely to be stranded. These citizens cannot go “home” to self-quarantine if you kick them out of campgrounds. Stranded RVers need to park somewhere overnight. Without campground reservations, many will park at commercial establishments that welcome RVers including Walmart, Cabela’s, Cracker Barrel and casinos. For overnight RV parking options, check out our article, “ https://www.truckcampermagazine.com/camper-lifestyle/free-and-safe-places-to-park-overnight-in-a-rv/ - Free and Safe Places to Park Overnight In An RV ”. https://www.truckcampermagazine.com/news/urgent-petition-to-keep-rv-campgrounds-open/ - https://www.truckcampermagazine.com/news/urgent-petition-to-keep-rv-campgrounds-open/ ------------- 2020.5 R-Pod 195 Hood River 2018 RAM 2500 6.4L |
Replies:
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 12:42pm
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Its a quandary. The problem I think is going to be the bathrooms. Shared bathroom facilities put both the campground workers and campground users at risk of infection. So, it becomes a liability problem as well as a health problem. Closing the bathrooms while leaving the campgrounds open probably isn't an option either. College campuses have a similar problem. The schools would like to close the campuses entirely but can't because there are students (foreign and domestic) that don't have alternative places to go. The difference from campgrounds is that the schools have school year commitments to these students while the campgrounds are short stays so they can just shut down and throw in the towel. The entire Outer Banks were shut down to visitors yesterday. My wife works in rental real estate on Hatteras Island. Its ridiculous. Everyone wants to have assurance that their reservations will still be good, even ones way out in July and August. I suggested she have them call the CDC.  The disruption is going to get worse before it gets better, and will take months to get sorted. I wouldn't count on returning to anything like a normal camping season anytime soon. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: Woodmiester
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 12:42pm
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What state is closing their campgrounds? ------------- Swampfox |
Posted By: Pod_Geek
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 12:46pm
From the linked article: Florida is joining https://www.facebook.com/IllinoisDNR/photos/a.218147918254821/2662548223814766/?type=3 - Illinois , http://www.emnrd.state.nm.us/SPD/documents/FAQS_031520.pdf - New Mexico , https://www.dcnr.pa.gov/Pages/AlertDetails.aspx - Pennsylvania , https://www.state.nj.us/dep/parksandforests/ - New Jersey and https://www.ncparks.gov/ - North Carolina in closing all state campgrounds. It’s not a great leap to foresee the remaining states following suit in the coming days. ------------- 2020.5 R-Pod 195 Hood River 2018 RAM 2500 6.4L |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 12:51pm
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California is also closing. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: EchoGale
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 1:05pm
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Also county/city owned campgrounds in Florida. I was supposed to be at Huguenot Park for 11 days (this would be about the middle). Two days packing and then one day half-unpacking when they came around and told us we had to be out by noon the next day because they were were closing. Was glad I was close enough to get home but many in the park were not. ------------- Julie |
Posted By: Pod_Geek
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 2:01pm
Perfect. Puts a lot of the most at-risk people on the road at a really bad time. ------------- 2020.5 R-Pod 195 Hood River 2018 RAM 2500 6.4L |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 3:23pm
The concern is real, yet I'm leary to sign this petition with stipulations required. I'd suggest instead is a campaign of each contacting not only local representatives, but federal as well. I am in agreement that this closing of camping areas is just wrong in direction and basically a panic move. Closing the Visitor Centers, Rec Halls and such I can see. I am open to being convinced that being in the outdoors, exercising and Social distancing (new term) on a campsite (dispersed or not) is dangerous... ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 3:39pm
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Its primarily the bathrooms in the campgrounds that pose the potential danger both to guests and cleaning staff. Possibly those could be closed and the parks kept open only for fully self contained RV's, but that would create enforcement issues and likely result in lots of nasty sanitation problems like happened in many of the federal parks during the gov't shutdown. There really isn't a good solution here for camping any more than there is for restaurants, group gatherings, schools, etc etc. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: Pod_Geek
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 3:45pm
I would think that full-hookup sites would be relatively safe and sanitary. Other types of sites...not so much. We are hoping to go to a very small RV park in norther NM (full hookups) next weekend, thinking that such a place would afford us a respite from the self-isolation without endangering ourselves or anyone else. Hoping it stays open... ------------- 2020.5 R-Pod 195 Hood River 2018 RAM 2500 6.4L |
Posted By: David and Danette
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 3:50pm
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I think this would be very difficult for truckers and travelers but has anybody heard if rest areas on the interstate hwy's might be closed?
------------- 2018 Vista Cruiser 19BFD (2018- 2012 Vibe 6503 (2014-2019) 2009 r-pod 171 (2009-2014) Middle Tn 2014 Ram 1500 Quad cab |
Posted By: JandMA
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 4:08pm
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As of now National Park sites seem to be open ------------- John and Mary Ann 2015 R pod 171 Hood River 2019 Kia Sorento AWD v6 |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 4:38pm
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We have a new trailer and a new truck to tow it and were planning on lots of camping this spring and summer. We just cancelled one trip. The reservations we had planned to make for April are now down the tubes. May and June are looking iffy. Remember, especially with vault toilets, the virus can be in the air because it is in fecal matter. Contact with others, whether it's you who is infected or someone else, poses a very high risk of transmission. The medical folks are saying that this virus has the ability to spread exponentially and that once it get a foothold it can take off like something we have never seen in any of our lives. I for one, believe that the common good is far more important than my convenience or desire to go camping. For those who live in RV parks, most have full hookups and accommodations can be made for them to stay put. Those who must travel for a living, such as truckers are at great risk and we don't need to make it worse by vacationing out on the road right now. For those of us who can return home, or stay put where we are, we should do it for the sake of our neighbors, our country. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: David and Danette
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 4:53pm
Fred I agree with what you said you explained it very well these are times that the outcome is unknown we need to listen to those who know best and take care and hope for the best and something we should all do that can't be mentioned. ------------- 2018 Vista Cruiser 19BFD (2018- 2012 Vibe 6503 (2014-2019) 2009 r-pod 171 (2009-2014) Middle Tn 2014 Ram 1500 Quad cab |
Posted By: codycountry
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 5:03pm
| I just read on-line that Nebraska is closing the rest areas along I-80 that do not have an attendant on duty. This is because people are stealing all the toilet paper and paper towels. I'm not making this up. It's not funny anymore. Stay home folks, until this is over. Do not travel. Be smart. Good luck. |
Posted By: mcarter
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 5:25pm
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TN is currently in closure discussion. My plan is to stay home. ------------- Mike Carter 2015 178 " I had the right to remain silent, I just didn't have the ability." |
Posted By: EchoGale
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 5:37pm
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This is a helpful source if you have plans and want to know what is closed: https://www.campendium.com/camping/covid-19-state-by-state-campground-closures-responses/ - https://www.campendium.com/camping/covid-19-state-by-state-campground-closures-responses/ ------------- Julie |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 8:57pm
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One point I forgot to mention: I had mentioned that Convid-19 can be found in feces. Pump out stations are not good places to be right now and really should be closed. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 9:17pm
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Private RV parks are not subject to this. Each one will make a decision as to whether to stay open or to close. We just got back from a week in Florida where we stayed in an RV park that has permanent, seasonal, and short term residents. We are of the third type. I am thankful that the owner did not tell us to leave. We did leave a day early, but that is because the assisted living facility where my parents stay restricted access. After we left, they went into a more stringent lockdown so that my parents can't even go to the dining room to eat, but must pretty much stay in their apartment. I did not feel that I was taking undue risks with our trip. I would go again. Depending on the circumstances, we still plan on the upcoming trip toward Alaska. However, if the border to Canada is shut down, that would bring that plan to a halt. I hope this resolves quickly. This is turning the economy upside down and my retirement accounts are going to have to ride this out. ------------- StephenH Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,... http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods Former RPod 179 Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS |
Posted By: Tars Tarkas
Date Posted: 18 Mar 2020 at 9:49pm
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I won't be at all surprised if private campgrounds are closed soon, just like bars, restaurants, movie theaters, etc., etc. Covid-19 is a massive public health issue that will, one way or another, roll right over just about every aspect of life as we know it. I'd prefer to do everything possible to contain this upfront, if that's even possible. My retirement accounts are already seriously trashed and they are going to get worse before they get better. LIke everything else. I gotta go with the idea of not going to campgrounds for the time being. Maybe something can be figured out about full-time RVers, but I think it will probably involve sheltering in place, not the freedom of the open road. TT ------------- 2010 176 FJ Cruiser |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 4:31am
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It is certainly possible to contain this, given draconian measures, at least the initial outbreak. Data from several east Asian countries shows this. But those cultures place less emphasis on individual choice than we do, so I'm doubtful the same methods can work quickly here or in western Europe. Italy's reported fatalities will most likely exceed China's in the next couple of days. Their fatality rate is over 8%. Then the question becomes what happens next. Covid19 isn't going to just disappear. We can't lock down the economy forever. Until there is herd immunity (either developed naturally by a majority of the population getting the disease and recovering) or artificially (via a vaccine) it will keep circulating with recurring outbreaks. Already China is reporting most of its new cases as coming from outside China. So I'm not planning on getting in a normal camping season this summer. In the meantime our rpod is being put to good use temporarily as a quarantine zone for our grandson, who has to continue to work at his relatively high exposure janitorial job. Many of us higher risk old folks can shelter in place but most young working ppl don't have that luxury. The rpod is a great temporary solution in our case, at least until we have to find a place to dump the black tank, as lostagain correctly points out. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 7:24am
Can the COVID-19 virus spread through sewerage systems? CDC is reviewing all data on COVID-19 transmission as information becomes available. At this time, the risk of transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19 through sewerage systems is thought to be low. Although transmission of COVID-19 through sewage may be possible, there is no evidence to date that this has occurred. This guidance will be updated as necessary as new evidence is assessed. SARS, a similar coronavirus, has been detected in untreated sewage for up to 2 to 14 days. In the 2003 SARS outbreak, there was documented transmission associated with sewage aerosols. Data suggest that standard municipal wastewater system chlorination practices may be sufficient to inactivate coronaviruses, as long as utilities monitor free available chlorine during treatment to ensure it has not been depleted. Wastewater and sewage workers should use standard practices, practice basic hygiene precautions, and wear personal protective equipment ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html - PPE ) as prescribed for current work tasks. Two important parts of this: Duration & Protection, neither are at an elevated level. Personally, I have never found a dump station to be a place a wish to be at. ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 7:31am
This I do agree somewhat. Since there still is no vaccine for earlier SARS or MERS, there will probably be none forthcoming for this version either. Like the past versions, it will be natural immunization to stop this and returning to good hygiene practices. I have no intentions of changing any plans of travel I have coming up. I also don't travel into highly populated areas of the unwashed.. ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 7:35am
Sorry, but not so.. Utah info (excerpt): The order states in part: "Overnight Lodging. Effective at 10 pm (MST) on March 17, 2020, all overnight and short-term lodging facilities (including but not limited to hotels, motels, condos, townhomes, guest homes, RV parks, and all camping on public or private lands) ATTENTION: The following order will be strictly enforced. Violation of the order is a Class B misdemeanor punishable by up to 6 months in jail, and fines of up to $1,950. Violations also could result in the revocation of overnight accommodation licensure. ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 8:03am
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Utah is going a bit too far. There will be travelers who need some form of accommodation. The western states are too big to drive through in a day generally. What happens if someone is trying to get home and has to go through Utah and the gas stations are shut down? There are unintended consequences to such a decree. What about the truckers who need to deliver supplies and then get some rest? Such a decree is short-sighted.
------------- StephenH Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,... http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods Former RPod 179 Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 8:19am
They are not alone in this! http://www.campendium.com/camping/covid-19-state-by-state-campground-closures-responses/ - http://www.campendium.com/camping/covid-19-state-by-state-campground-closures-responses/ ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: Woodmiester
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 9:20am
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We have curtailed our plans for this summer. This virus hits seniors particularly fast and hard. To be on the road far from home and one or both of us gets extremely sick, besides presenting an extreme hardship on your partner, but if something worse should happen, what then???? Nope, just going to stay home for awhile and enjoy spending the summer with my honey!! ------------- Swampfox |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 10:19am
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There are lots of vectors to spread the infection, from direct contact with ill people to pump out stations that have aerosolized fecal matter depositing the virus on the apparatus used in connecting the drain tube and clean up hose. At this point, leisure travel, as much as we all want to get out on the road, is not in the best interest of the common good. It's time to stay home and protect our neighbors and fellow Americans/Canadians/or anyone else in our world. For me, personally, it's driving me nuts! I have a brand new trailer and TV and am as anxious to get out on the road as anyone. But in this especially dangerous time, we need to put the interest of the community above our own personal preferences. None of us is getting any younger. Our time to travel is limited and disappearing. Nevertheless, as Woodmiester suggested, being out on the road and falling ill, especially we geezers, is going to present severe hardships not only on ourselves but our loved ones and our communities. So, stay home and give those who have to be on the road for a living transporting our food and other essential supplies a fighting chance. We need them to be healthy. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 11:11am
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Likewise, it looks like our travel plans for this year are disrupted. However, if something happens and we need to go to Florida again to see my parents, the RPod is the best thing to go with as I think the RV park where we have stayed several times would again allow us to stay. It also allows us to have some social distancing as opposed to a motel. ------------- StephenH Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,... http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods Former RPod 179 Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 12:10pm
This is what I mean by getting caught up in the mass hysteria... I read an awesome, common sense article today that really hits home. Of those 6o-70 yrs of age (like me, 67) we sit in the 6.8% mortality rate. Yet understand, that is 6.8% of those that have contracted Covid-19 (known cases), and amongst those at risk (some sort of immune deficiency). This places the mortality rate closer to .04% of the population of our age group (actually including all over 65yrs). If you are 'at risk', then even after this all blows by, you should still be taking precautions. Not any different than what common sense dictates what we should be doing now. There will be more, new viruses down the road we will need to deal with. Let's make get carried away and make this the new normal of dealing such. Stay clean. Stay safe. ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: Woodmiester
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 1:22pm
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Good point oldawgsrule. However, I have read and can find anything that reads the way I want it! Who are these so called "experts"?? So, by going by your experts rule, it is okay to jump out of an airplane using a parachute because only .03 percent of the chutes fail to open!!.................No thank you. I can make my decisions based on my own feelings, fears, knowlege or whatever without being accused of Mass hysteria. Give me a break!! We are 77 years old, healthy and very active. We got that way by prudent behavior and making sound decisions. Please don't label people or play identity podatics  Have a great summer and good travels! ------------- Swampfox |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 1:33pm
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It isn't just a question of your own vulnerability vis-a-vi the mortality rate for your age group (or vulnerability due to a weakened immune system). It's a question of getting infected and passing on the virus to others who may be very vulnerable. It is far from hysteria to express concern about getting sick on the road and realizing that it can affect many, many others, not just your travel companion [such as health care workers trying to save you]. It's just good common sense and a recognition of our responsibility to protect everyone; the common good. As for mortality rates, be very careful about assessing them. Without accurate data on infection rates, it is impossible to calculate the mortality rate. All we see is the tip of the iceberg. This is a disease that is contagious well before symptoms are exhibited. In the Spanish flu pandemic, there were attempts to understate the data on infections, indeed one newspaper was charged with sedition for publishing accurate information. When all was said and done, about almost 5% of the world's population was killed by the disease. As with that flu, we have no anti-viral drug that can treat it. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 1:47pm
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The fatality rate data is all over the map. The numerator is easy, it’s the number of fatalities in the given country or globally. The variable is what you take as the denominator. You can’t use the current number of cases as in the early phase of an epidemic many of those, if not most, have not resolved yet. So it’s easy to underestimate the fatality rate that way. If you look at the current data from Italy in that light it looks really bad, the fatality rate is over 8% and only about 20% of the cases have resolved so far.
OTOH, the denominator also obviously depends on how many people are getting tested, as many mild cases can go unreported and that varies a lot by country based on how restrictive they’re being with their testing, resulting in the likelihood of an overestimate in those places with few test kits available. In the SARS epidemic WHOs original estimate was about 4%, it wound up being closer to 10%. I’m pointing this out not to trigger more fear, simply to say that we just don’t know yet, and prudence tells us to take all sensible precautions until we know more. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: mcarter
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 3:44pm
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On a positive note, I worked on my trailer today in pleasant weather. Normally I would be done with that and headed out on first fishing /camping adventure. Looking forward to some nice weather to do my maintenance and needed repairs. +1 to LostAgain, I'm not putting anybody at risk and no one is doing same to me. ------------- Mike Carter 2015 178 " I had the right to remain silent, I just didn't have the ability." |
Posted By: David and Danette
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 4:21pm
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I have started planting our Spring vegetable garden it's not a bad Idea to have a vegetable garden in these uncertain times.
------------- 2018 Vista Cruiser 19BFD (2018- 2012 Vibe 6503 (2014-2019) 2009 r-pod 171 (2009-2014) Middle Tn 2014 Ram 1500 Quad cab |
Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 19 Mar 2020 at 6:34pm
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I would have washed my truck and trailer, but the pollen levels are very high. Spring is when everyone in NC drives a yellow vehicle.
------------- StephenH Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,... http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods Former RPod 179 Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 6:35am
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Wow... Justify/believe as you all wish. I'll go with the information I trust (backed by math). The test numbers are rising, which is good and the mortality rate is not, still holding around 1.5%. ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 7:03am
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Good news! BLM Land is still open as of last news release. http://www.blm.gov/press-release/blm-temporarily-suspend-entrance-fees-public-lands-across-america?fbclid=IwAR1QYuyMToJARi9Qt7RQkXreHr0MPqcK2x3opUcDa6YfdeJ6I5BPXRQ8Faw - http://www.blm.gov/press-release/blm-temporarily-suspend-entrance-fees-public-lands-across-america?fbclid=IwAR1QYuyMToJARi9Qt7RQkXreHr0MPqcK2x3opUcDa6YfdeJ6I5BPXRQ8Faw ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 9:04am
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At this point, no math is reliable in the USA because there is insufficient data. Your calculations may be correct, but the numerator and denominator are not reliable. As they say in the computer data business: Garbage in, garbage out. Olddawg, you don't seem to get it. It isn't only your exposure to Convid-19 that matters. It's the spread of the disease to all of us. You don't know for a fact that you are not infected or won't be infected in your travels by someone else. The disease is contagious well before symptoms start. If you are out and about, you may be infecting others and not even know it. We all have a responsibility to our communities, to stay out of harms way trying to not become infected and if we are infected not spreading the disease, especially to the most vulnerable. The logic you seem to be using is the same logic as is being used by the kids on the beach in FL for spring break. It can't happen to me. Those kids on the beach will, as certain as the sun rises, pass the virus on to the elderly in FL and we will see the consequences. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 10:04am
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Personally, I am not going to go to where large crowds are expected, Our plans for Alaska look like they are out the window for this year. However, we may go to visit our daughters instead. I like that the 'Pod makes it easier to maintain social distancing.
------------- StephenH Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,... http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods Former RPod 179 Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 10:05am
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Lostagain is right. We don't have enough information to be making an informed decision. Numbers are all over the map, and that's driven by a dearth of testing information in places like the US (there are others). If you look at what information we do have there are some very contradictory anomalies in the data. For example, there are very few COVID-19 cases in India (population about the same as China), and very few in Russia. OTOH, if you look at the data from Italy, their fatality/infection rate is close to 8%. We clearly don't understand what is going on yet, and drawing conclusions at this point is little more than speculation. Then you have college students running around on spring break as if they are invulnerable. Maybe they should be paying attention to this information: https://abcnews.go.com/US/40-hospitalized-coronavirus-younger-54-cdc/story?id=69681304 - https://abcnews.go.com/US/40-hospitalized-coronavirus-younger-54-cdc/story?id=69681304 ------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 10:14am
By all means let’s be grounded by actual data. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ Look at the current data from Italy and tell me how that supports a 1.5% fatality rate. I would lean toward S Korea as having perhaps the best data set overall at the moment. They are transparent, and have aggressively tested from the beginning. The infection rate there appears to have now peaked. Currently they are at a 4% fatality rate, and it looks like it’s getting better as cases resolve. BTW, they didn’t lockdown their whole economy either, but they do wear masks and practice social distancing. But every country has been different in timeliness of its reaction and effecteness if it’s response. We just don’t know what we don’t know. Lucky us, we got the Spring breakers. Personally I’d quarantine all those entitled brats on military bases for the next two weeks. No booze or pot, cell phones, video games, or fraternization of the sexes. But that’s me. Heh heh. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 10:55am
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As for the spring breakers, I'd add that they be required to perform some kind of monotonous hard labor 12 hours a day. Making new beach sand from boulders might be helpful. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: Pod_Geek
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 3:34pm
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Most KOAs open; cancellation policy modified https://koa.com/blog/covid-19-update/ - https://koa.com/blog/covid-19-update/ From an email that I received: CHANGES OR CANCELLATIONS
Because of the ever-changing impact of COVID-19 on how we operate, congregate and travel, we have adapted our cancellation guidelines to offer more flexibility to our campers. If your plans change over these upcoming weeks, we will gladly work with you to rebook your stay for a later time. If you do choose to cancel, you may do so up to 24 hours ahead of the scheduled check-in date, and receive a full refund without a cancellation fee or the loss of your deposit. This applies to stays between March 1, 2020 and April 30, 2020. Campers who cancel within the 24 hour time window of arrival will forfeit their deposit. ------------- 2020.5 R-Pod 195 Hood River 2018 RAM 2500 6.4L |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 3:41pm
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Started then stopped.. No more from me on this matter, but to say: I do get it! I know the precautions! I'm not scared, frighten and hiding in home. I'm out helping those that are. No, I'm not infected and I can know. Stay safe all! ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: Woodmiester
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 4:15pm
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Good discussion! Everyone be prudent and remember us “old timers” are supposed to be the smart ones😂 ------------- Swampfox |
Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 4:58pm
We didn't get to be this old by being stupid. 
------------- StephenH Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,... http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods Former RPod 179 Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS |
Posted By: mcarter
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 5:26pm
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Ain't that the truth. ------------- Mike Carter 2015 178 " I had the right to remain silent, I just didn't have the ability." |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 20 Mar 2020 at 5:49pm
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I suspect few on this board are frightened or panicked. Rather, everyone is trying to do his/her part in acting responsibly to avoid spreading the virus by following the recommendations of scientists who know way, way more than most of us know about virology and epidemiology. No one is hiding in his home afraid to go out and any implication to the contrary is unfair and uncalled for. I hope none was intended. The bottom line is anyone can be infected and contagious and not know it; at least so say the scientists. Thus, in helping others, one must use utmost caution and follow medical guidelines, including face masks to capture coughing and aerosol distribution of the virus if direct contact is occurring. Also, the virus can remain viable on surfaces for considerable time, depending on the environmental conditions, so that must also be considered even with indirect contact with others. I hope everyone stays safe.
------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2020 at 9:55am
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I usually check this site once a day. It's driven by data from Johns Hopkins University. You can look at global data or check individual countries. Worldwide fatality/infection ratio is at 4.1% this morning. Infections per day exceeded 29,500 on March 20. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 ------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2020 at 10:04am
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Fear is a key survival mechanism in essentially all mammals including humans. It keeps us all alive. No one gets to be the age most of us have reached without experiencing fear many many times. It’s a good thing. So I’m perfectly happy to acknowledge I fear the corinavirus. I fear towing my rpod with too much rear weight distribution too.
Fear becomes a bad thing if we can’t integrate that fear into a reasoned response. That is where the ability to analyze data and communicate with others who may have more experience with the phenomenon triggering the fear sets humans apart. But fear is still the underlying motivator, as it was for me to go out and weigh my dang trailer tongue the first time. Nothing to be ashamed of. Fear of coronavirus won’t stop me from living my life any more than fear of trailer sway stops me from towing my rpod. But both have changed my behavior. Now it’s motivated me to take a deeper dive into the mathematical models behind epidemic expansions and contractions. It’s fascinating really. If anyone is interested here is an article on the kind of thing we might expect going forward. Buckle up, it’s prolly gonna be awhile. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/?fbclid=IwAR1YYOim2N6RUoqoQrboSWBAwNfIgP3BMYha6DrOt0JR_fpFzdYra16BsSU ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2020 at 10:29am
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Here is an interesting assessment of the Covid-19 situation here in the USA: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage Of note, the article specifically points out one of the more serious problems is that people may spread the virus while they are symptom free and unaware they are infected. I agree with offgrid's comment about fear. Fear becomes destructive when it leads to irrational acts or inaction. Fear that motivates people to find well thought out solutions is what keeps all of us alive. Unfortunately, in our language we often confuse the two and sometimes use the the word fear as a synonym for cowardice. They are not the same. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: Olddawgsrule
Date Posted: 21 Mar 2020 at 3:04pm
Very good site. Info is very close to what I'm following. ------------- https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJduGeZNFgtptH67leItRFQ - Byways no Highways 2017 Tacoma http://tnttt.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=72408 - Truck Camper Build 2004 F150 My Overlander |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 22 Mar 2020 at 9:48pm
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For all who wonder about the spread of a pandemic here is an outstanding documentary on the issue produced by the BBC. It last a little over an hour, but it's very informative. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAIaxavSlO8 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAIaxavSlO8
------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 11:16am
A very good documentary, I just finished watching it. While they were modelling a flu pandemic I think the results are pretty representative of Covid19. One key number mentioned is Ro, the average number of ppl infected by someone with the disease. That was assumed to be 1.8 in the documentary. With that number and modelling the movement and contacts of the population they ended up with over 2/3 of the population of the UK getting infected within about 3 months. The initial numbers for Ro in covid19 are in the range of 2-3, so not good. Those numbers assume no changes in ppl's behavior. But Ro depends on behavior, so social distancing, hand washing, wearing a mask, remaining at home, etc all act to bring down Ro. If you can get it below 1 then the epidemic will die out. That's why its so important to follow those guidelines. In the documentary they used anonymous cell phone data from volunteers to model the hypothetical spread. S Korea and Singapore have gone much further and use actual real time cell phone data to back track infected individuals and identify their contacts. They even publish the locations and times (but not names) where infected people were, so ppl that might have been infected can go get tested. Not so good for personal privacy but very good apparently for curbing spread of infections. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 2:26pm
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The NYT had a nice calculator on their web site that allowed you to adjust R0 (transmissibility) and the fatality ratio. With a R0 of 2.2 and fatality ratio of about 1%, the numbers got high really quickly. Right now the global fatality rate is right about 4.3%. If you look at just Italy, it's around 8%. I believe (I don't know, just speculating) that a very large percentage of infections are never reported or maybe even known. I've seen guesses of as many as 80-90 percent are not recorded. So that would modulate the overall death rate downward. Then you have really anomalous numbers from Russia (1 death. Really?!?) and India (10 deaths?!?). Those kinds of numbers are really difficult for me to believe. ------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 24 Mar 2020 at 4:59pm
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I agree that in countries not doing much testing (including the US so far) the mortality rate will tend look higher than it would be if all the cases were identified. OTOH, in countries that are in the exponential phase of growth in cases (like in the US, Italy, and many other European countries), the mortality rate calculated by simply dividing deaths by total cases will be too low, because most of the new cases have not resolved yet and many will inevitably end up resulting in death. If it typically takes say a week from when a case is identified for the disease to resolve one way or the other then you have to take the total deaths today and divide by the total cases a week ago. Then there is the suspicion that deaths are not identified as actually being from the virus (likely to be the case in India and many other poorer countries) or perhaps the cause of death is being hidden (which has been suggested is happening in Russia). So its all over the map. For these reasons I'm paying close attention to the data from S Korea which is (1) presumed to be pretty transparent and accurate, (2) involves more complete testing than probably any other country and (3) has brought the virus more or less under control, although they still have more open than closed cases. Their fatality rate on closed cases is running at 3% right now. That doesn't mean that the overall world fatality rate will wind up at 3%. S Korea has for the most part had enough hospital beds and, importantly, enough ventilators, which are critical to survival for the sickest patients. Italy has not had enough, and unfortunately, neither do we. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: EchoGale
Date Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 11:53am
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Many of us are following the COVID19 data. I've been seeing notices that some of the sites presenting Johns Hopkins data might be malicious (malware, viruses, trojan horses). Here is the link directly to Johns Hopkins: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html ------------- Julie |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 12:16pm
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I like the presentation on this site: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ One benefit of this site is that you can view the graphical data by either linear or log plot. When something is increasing exponentially like Covid-19 cases are many places, the eye is not good at assessing whether or not things are still accelerating or beginning to slow down when plotted linearly. On a log plot its pretty easy to see if measures are having an impact or not. An exponential increase will look like a sloped straight line on a log plot. Our case data for instance is sadly still showing a sloping straight line so we haven't seen any real reduction in the rate of infections yet. Italy's infection rate appears to be beginning to flatten out finally. Spain might be starting to, a little. S Korea and China have horizontal log plots which means they have things under control right now. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 1:41pm
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No question this has started to exceed the capabilities of a linear graph. Depending on when you estimate it started (November or December) it took ~~ 4 months to reach an infection total of 100,000. We hit 200,000 12 days later. 300,000 happened in just 3 days. We blew past 400,000 in about 2 days, and we will probably hit near 500,000 today (yesterday's total (March 24)was 438,000). ------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: Wirat
Date Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 3:52pm
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The data emerging is incredible. The cruise ships seem to be statistically large enough samples to rely on as they all have been stuck together (controlled) on the ship until everyone is accounted for and tested. Quote from CNN on the Diamond Princess: "Of the 712 passengers and crew members of the ship who tested positive for coronavirus, 331 -- or 46.5% -- were asymptomatic at the time of testing, the CDC said." Who knows how many self-treat at home cases there will be that go unidentified. In many poor countries they have no choice but to ride it out. Let's see what happens in India. I've been in some hospitals in SE Asia where you may as well be at home! Patients lying in bed wearing street clothes and their family brings them food, etc.
Testing negative today doesn't mean you won't contract it tomorrow and be asymptomatic (or even as you leave the testing facility!). I can see how someone testing negative may have a false sense of security. The results of the test are only good for up to the moment the test was taken. I can also see some people who contract it and recover thinking they have immunity then become lackadaisical with social distancing and sanitation because they figure "it's your problem now..." That's why everyone, infected or not, needs to behave as if they are infected until two steps occur in this order: 1) an effective antiviral is developed to treat current cases; 2) vaccine developed to prevent new cases. Not that everyone has to freak out, but do the best with the social distancing and sanitation guidelines. Where I live the only thing keeping some covidiots home is the fact that everything is closed and they have nothing to do or nowhere to go. ------------- 2019 R-Pod 191 |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 4:18pm
Covidiots, gotta love it...  ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: Pod_Geek
Date Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 4:37pm
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Reports are that the generation being currently conceived will be called, in 2033, the quaranteens.
No, I didn't come up with that one... ------------- 2020.5 R-Pod 195 Hood River 2018 RAM 2500 6.4L |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 5:20pm
+1 to covidiots.  ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: StephenH
Date Posted: 25 Mar 2020 at 8:35pm
------------- StephenH Happy is the man that findeth wisdom,... http://www.rpod-owners.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=7712 - ouR escaPOD mods Former RPod 179 Current Cherokee Grey Wolf 24 JS |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 26 Mar 2020 at 8:32am
I'm sure that China's lockdowns have resulted in far less infections. Lockdowns do work to slow this, we know that. If China had continued exponentially as it had originally and as we are right now there would be millions of infections there now and that could not be concealed. Whether or not their current status is as good as they claim is another story. If you have a relatively low level of infections and limit testing this disease is pretty easy to conceal, at least for awhile. There was an article I read yesterday regarding why Russia's numbers are so low, the suspicion being that they are recording covid19 deaths as pneumonia. Of course, it is true that what folks actually die of with this disease mostly is pneumonia. Its the cause of the pneumonia that's important. So if you don't test and so don't "know" the cause of the pneumonia it makes it very easy to put your finger on the scale, at least until the freight train hits you. This wouldn't be the first time either. My grandfather was an iron miner in the UP and his death in the 1930's was recorded by the mining company doctor as pneumonia when everyone knew he had silicosis. I would expect the same reporting issue unintentionally from many countries with weak health systems. The won't know that the higher than normal case load of pneumonia is covid19 unless they have test kits, and they don't. The US is reporting around 70000 cases now, so we are probably within a couple of days of exceeding both Italy's and China's reported cases. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 26 Mar 2020 at 9:29am
I heard they will be the Coronials or the Coronial Generation. ------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: EchoGale
Date Posted: 26 Mar 2020 at 7:57pm
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Maine State Parks closing: https://www.mainepublic.org/post/maine-closes-popular-coastal-state-parks-beaches-due-overcrowding - https://www.mainepublic.org/post/maine-closes-popular-coastal-state-parks-beaches-due-overcrowding ------------- Julie |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 9:51am
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To mask or not to mask, that is the question. Yesterday there was some commotion about a new report arguing that safe distance to minimize covid19 transmission is around 24-27 feet, not 6 feet as per current CDC guidelines. We had Dr Fauci saying on live TV that was "terribly misleading". Here is the actual article in JAMA. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852 - https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763852 The author is a fluid dynamicist at MIT who leads a team doing physical applied math focussed on the mechanisms of disease transmission. Dr Fauci is a medical doctor. Who do you think understands the physics of aerosols and droplets better? The 6 foot distance is based on studies from the 1930's. Since it is impractical to maintain a 27 foot distance, and obviously impossible for health care workers, the article recommends wearing masks and development of improved mask designs. This and all the buzz that the CDC is "reconsidering" the use of masks in reducing coronavirus transmission suggests to me that we are being prepped for revised recommendations to wear masks when out in public, just like they do in the East Asian countries that have more or less had success containing this pandemic. Many of the public health folks in those countries think we're crazy not to wear masks. Bottom line, I have a few masks available, and I wear one when I'm out. I don't care if people look at me like I've got Ebola or the zombie plague. I might avoid catching this disease or, since 25 plus percent of people who get it never have symptoms, and most everyone is asymptomatic but contagious for a couple of days, I just might avoid spreading this to someone else who could die as a result. Just my $0.02 ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 11:25am
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Here is the ultimate protection: https://postimg.cc/cKCxwFr3">  ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: Wirat
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 12:12pm
Good points. There's a lot of book theory going in to these findings and then doctors or whomever use those theories to back up their hypotheses. There is a Dr. David Price from Cornell in NYC that specializes in pulmonary disease and has been working in one of the hardest hit Covid19 hospitals there for weeks and swimming in it daily. There is a video on YouTube with him doing a teleconference where he says from his experience of working with Covid19 so far he's observed that a mask will help you if there are droplets, but that contact from your hands to your face is the primary route of infection and that's what people need to concentrate on. He gives advice on how to protect yourself and says if you follow it you will not get the disease. Of course, that's if you believe him. I don't travel on a subway or live in a congested area like people do in big cities here or in Asia. In Asia and they wear masks a lot even before Covid19 mostly because of air pollution. I can see where it would help to stop droplets and spray especially if the person wearing it coughed or sneezed. Some people even spit when they talk. So many differing opinions now, who to believe. Nothing wrong with wearing a mask IMO, biggest problem we have today is the minority of people who are not following the basic guidelines. So it spreads. Seems to me it cannot infect you if it's not transported to you, or you don't go to it... ------------- 2019 R-Pod 191 |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 12:23pm
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Here's the link to Dr. Price's comments. http:// vimeo.com/399733860 - http://vimeo.com/399733860 - https://vimeo.com/399733860
------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: EchoGale
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 12:50pm
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Thanks for this interesting article. I've been wearing a mask for a week or so now (though I am actually out very little). I've not seen anyone else doing so here in North Florida. ------------- Julie |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 2:58pm
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I watched Dr. Price's video, and a lot of what's in there is great advice. But his statement that you can only get this by touching something contaminated and then touching your face is not correct or appropriate. There is plenty of evidence that it can be spread by airborne droplets, as can the flu. One thing that causes confusion apparently is the technical definition of "airborne". This goes back to the 1930's segregation into large and small droplets. The "small" droplets were thought to dry up almost immediately leaving tiny particles called aerosols. For a virus to be considered to be "airborne" it had to be able to be transmitted via these aerosols. There is no evidence yet that Covid-19 can be transmitted that way. But that doesn't mean you can't breathe in droplets that a sick person has released and get sick that way. Of course you can. And the MIT study suggests that much smaller droplets can stay droplets for longer and travel farther than the old studies suggested. Again, medical doctors are experts on how to treat patients. They aren't geneticists, magnetic resonance imaging engineers, or fluid dynamicists. Health care today involves specialists in so many different advanced scientific and technical fields that nobody can be an expert in all of them. Its silly when some doctors still attempt to do that. We'll see whether the guidelines change to include mask wearing for the general public. Some central European countries like Austria are already reversing course on this. Not recommending them for the general public creates mistrust as no one believes that they can magically only work for health care professionals or that the public is too stupid to learn how to use them correctly. The harm comes if ppl hoard them so there's not enough for the medical workers, but any that were available for hoarding have long since been hoarded now anyhow. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 3:14pm
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It's all a question of probability and field experience. Certainly, it is possible to catch Covid-19 from airborne aerosols, however, the clinical experience seems to suggest that this is less effective means of transmission than hand to face. If it was an efficient means of transmission, then we'd be seeing a lot more medical personnel falling ill, as even the N95 masks can't filter out all virus particles. There is tremendous disagreement about the efficacy of face masks, and the design and handling of them is all over the map. But countries that have traditionally used face masks on a large scale, seem to be fairing better than those who have no culture of using masks. No strap on mask can stop all virus particles from entering your lungs, but reducing the viral load and, more importantly keeping you hands off your face, makes masks a viable tool to reduce exposure. And masks are especially helpful in reducing the aerosolized particles from entering the air, when an infected (whether s/he knows it or not) sneezes or coughs. My wife has been experimenting with mask designs and she has come up with several that we have shared with family and others in our community. If regularly washed, dried in a dryer, and properly handled as a potentially infectious object before laundering, they can be an aid in reducing the virus. We don't go out in public with out one. We don't have any reason to think we are infected, but on the off chance we are, we'd feel just awful infecting someone else.
------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: David and Danette
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 3:22pm
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My wife and I last night watched on PBS about the flu epidemic of 1919 it gives you a idea how bad contagious disease can spread and the seriousness of what is happening now. We have our vegetable garden started reminds me kind of like the Victory Gardens they had during World War two. ------------- 2018 Vista Cruiser 19BFD (2018- 2012 Vibe 6503 (2014-2019) 2009 r-pod 171 (2009-2014) Middle Tn 2014 Ram 1500 Quad cab |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 4:38pm
The physics behind the fluid dynamics of droplets is important because we need to have a basis for our decisions beyond just some doctors saying this is their experience in uncontrolled conditions. That is an opinion, not science. They have not done controlled experiments or case studies or statistical analysis. We might have better field experience after this surge in cases is over from case studies like this one. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak - https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak In the meantime we can't tease things apart with statistics either unless we can identify two populations, one which wore masks and the other which didn't, and that's the only significant difference between them. There are many other differences between the way east Asia and the West have managed this besides mask wearing. A lot of medical personnel have fallen ill, even though they do wear masks and in theory they do wash their hands properly, and don't touch their faces. They are our front line heroes in this fight. In the meantime my main point is that the CDC needs to treat us like grownups and rather than tell us that masks won't help us bc we haven't been trained how to use them, at least tell us that the data is uncertain and if you want to wear a mask here's how to do it properly. And this argument that wearing a mask makes you touch your face more is crazy to me. A mask is a great reminder not to touch your face as feels so unnatural. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 5:48pm
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more info: http:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 01 Apr 2020 at 6:45pm
Great video, thanks. Kim Woo-Ju is my hero, what a great guy, data driven, practical, no nonsense, and humble to boot. Can we steal him from S Korea?  The 5 micron cutoff between aerosols and droplets is arbitrary and the issue the MIT research team is challenging. Their point is that there is a continuum of droplet sizes and gas puffs entrain and protect smaller droplets and can carry them much further than previously thought. In any case, IMHO and as our good Korean Dr says, we should try to do whatever we can that can help stop the spread, including wearing masks if we have them. If we can keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed like in NY we can avoid what is happening in NYC, Italy, and Spain. The life you save may be your own or a loved one's. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 02 Apr 2020 at 10:05am
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There's a reason they call it "practicing" medicine. There are not hard lines, or black and white delineators like in pure physics. There is good evidence that just being in the room with someone with CV is not enough to infect you. There are variables with regard to viral load, and a person's susceptibility that you can not account for with physics. We have no idea how many viral particles it takes to infect a person, but it's almost certainly more than one, or ten, or a hundred. Probably more than a few thousand. Then again, it will probably vary from person to person. If you walk into a room and happen to breath in a few tens or a few hundred viral particles, you may or may not become infected. ------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 02 Apr 2020 at 12:51pm
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The arbitrary 5 micron droplet cutoff was not defined by physicists, it was doctors that came up with that, a long time ago. The fluid dynamicists are the ones challenging that. It is an oversimplification that was probably necessary at the time. Fluid dynamics, numerical modeling, and photographic techniques have all advanced dramatically since then. The researchers are not stating a likelihood of infection as a function of distance just that droplets can be viable at longer distance than previously thought.
There is unfortunately an arrogance and dismissive attitude that some md’s display regarding fields they know little about or even ones they did but have not kept up to date on. I have experienced that numerous times in dealing with family health issues. I’m certainly not alone in that. So I do my own research regarding what I’m being told and if it isn’t consistent with the peer reviewed literature I challenge it. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding conditions resulting in covid19 spread. Certainly the cluster associated with the WA choir indicates that spread from being in the room with a contagious person is likely. And the success in containment in East Asia where folks wear masks and the public health officials emphasize their use also points strongly in that direction. I personally see no downside to wearing a mask if you use proper donning and doffing procedures and will continue to do so when out in public. There are plenty of YouTube videos on how to don and doff masks, it’s not rocket science. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 02 Apr 2020 at 3:21pm
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MD's aren't the only ones infected with the arrogance virus. It also affects lawyers, engineers, scientists, in fact, pretty much every human being that has ever existed or will exist. An interesting note, in Dr. Kim's interview, he specifically suggested that the act of singing in a choir could spread the virus very efficiently, because all the people are spewing out droplets of saliva as they shout/sing, in effect filling the room with aerosolized virus. This was in contrast to simply being in the room or near an infected person for a short period of time. This is consistent with what Dr. Price's comment about most infections of medical staff are where they are involved with patients without protective equipment, suggesting that PPE reduces transmission. If you are going to wear a mask, be sure to be careful with it after use. Though it would likely be a very inefficient means of transmission, it can harbor virus particles. So, best, if the mask is washable to launder it and dry it in a dryer where the heat will kill what the washing machine didn't.
------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 8:59am
I assume you left corporate executives and politicians off the list of those infected with arrogance because that is so obvious? I think some professions reward arrogance more than others. Being cautious and having all one's ducks in a row slows down decision making which can be a bad thing. Science as a profession has more checks and balances in its system than most jobs, before you publish in a peer reviewed scientific journal you better be ready to defend your work. It's far from a perfect system but it has worked well to advance human knowledge for several centuries now. As for air based coronavirus transmission, here is an interesting read. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/you-may-be-able-spread-coronavirus-just-breathing-new-report-finds - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/you-may-be-able-spread-coronavirus-just-breathing-new-report-finds What I've been doing (and I'm open to challenge on the process) is to reuse two surgical masks I had from a small box I bought last fall. I wash hands, put on a mask, go do my shopping, return, wash hands again, remove the mask by handling only the ear straps. I place the contaminated mask on a shelf, then wash my hands again. Next time I go out I use a second stored mask, then back to the first. As I go out shopping less than once a week it is two weeks or more before I reuse a mask, so I am hoping/assuming that any virus particles on the used masks have become inactivated over those couple of weeks. Re cloth masks I'm not sure how effective those can be because they have a pretty loose weave. Looks like new mask recommendations are imminent from the CDC. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 9:49am
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"pretty much every human being that has ever existed or will exist" --- I was trying to keep it short, make it readable, get my point across, and stay out of politics, religion, guns, etc. I specifically included "lawyer" because I am one and am as guilty as the next person. Every day we are learning more about the spread of Covid-19. Credible scientists acknowledge that is is an issue of probability and that the best we can do is reduce our risk of infection, not eliminate it. As for mask use, don't forget, especially with masks that can't be laundered, they can harbor a lot more bugs than Covid-19. They catch mold spores, fungus, bacteria, etc. etc. in a moist humid environment and can grow a zoo of microscopic creatures. Many of these organism last for weeks and months and when you put the mask on again, you are exposing yourself to the risk of some kind of infection. Injecting fungus spores into your lungs can often lead to health issues. As for masks, they are far from perfect and will not guarantee protection from infection. Clearly there is a balance between breathability and permeability. If no air can get in, neither can the virus, but most people would not like the side effects. There are two reasons to wear a mask made of a filtering medium. It reduces hand to face contact, a major factor in infection, and it can reduce, not eliminate, the viral load to which you may be exposed. As Dr. Kim suggested, we should all use masks as they have in Asian countries for many years. But we also need to be cognizant of their limitations and risks, and handle them accordingly. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 10:32am
I was joking... but also just making the point that in some professions you often need a bit more arrogance to be successful, or put more positively, readiness to make timely decisions with limited data. Business, government, military service, and medical practice would fall in that category. Research scientists don't in general get professionally rewarded for that. No suggestion of any political bias intended. You raise a good point about pathogens remaining on reused masks. But I think in the near term I'd rather wear a mask that has a designed for purpose filter medium and then allow it to dry out for a couple of weeks. I'm totally incompetent to try to make something at home in any case.  At least one medical center in Nebraska is now decontaminating masks with UV light and reusing them. I checked on the 'Zon for UV lights and the suppliers are already either price gouging or out of stock, duh...Think I'll move my mask storage to a sunny window sill and try using good old solar radiation.  ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 10:49am
Oh, where is that tanning bed when I need it?  According to WHO: "Heat at 56°C kills the SARS coronavirus at around 10000 units per 15 min (quick reduction)." Though Covid-19 ain't SARS, it's from the same family and is likely to have the same reaction to heat. For those who don't like metric, that's about 133℉. I think I'd put masks that can't be laundered in something to heat them to that temperature for a while, unless they have components that can't sustain that temperature. Basically, heat the mask as high as you can without melting it or setting it on fire. On second thought, setting it on fire will kill pretty much everything it harbors.  We discussed selling the masks that my wife is making on eBay for $50 or $60 each, but decided, instead to give them away to family and our community.
------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 10:54am
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There is most certainly a trade off between filtering and breathability. https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/ - This is a relatively good overview of the trade offs. The point being that no filter is perfect, although the N95 masks are considered excellent in terms of both protection and breathability. I believe we should think of face masks as (1) training to remind us not to touch our faces, and (2) protection for others around us just in case we are infected and don't know it. I also found https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/ - this discussion from 538 (these guys are all about data). It discusses all the uncertainties about trying to get a handle on where this whole thing is going. We don't know denominators; we don't know numerators; each jurisdiction (city, county, state, country) uses different metrics to describe the same thing; and so on. I think one of the advantages of the home-made masks is that you could have several of them that you can rotate through the laundry. If the clothes washer does a 45-60 minute cycle, that has to be at least 100X better than washing your hands for 20 seconds.
------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 11:16am
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That article about how hard it is to predict the course of the pandemic reads like the staff at 538 throwing down the gauntlet for Nate Silver. Bet he’s working on a model as we speak. 😜 ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: Wirat
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 12:42pm
And with all cloth masks if you washed it/rinsed them by hand you can throw it in the microwave for 35 seconds or so until steaming hot and that nukes just about everything. I've been sanitizing washcloths as well as planting mediums that way for years.
------------- 2019 R-Pod 191 |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 1:31pm
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According to the article GlueGuy shared the only material that comes close in filtering micron scale particles to a basic surgical mask is a vacuum cleaner bag which I expect would be hard to breathe through. Think I’ll stay with my couple surgical masks. I doubt the little rubber straps will hold up to much heating and I don’t want to find out the hard way. Maybe the shortage will end and they’ll be available again pretty soon. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 1:58pm
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N-95 masks have metal staples and a metal nose bridge piece in them that complicate microwaving. If that metal is present in the microwave, you'll probably set the mask on fire. (As I noted above, that would be an effective way to sterilize it, but reuse could be difficult.) Vacuum cleaner bag material would be reasonable for homemade single use masks, but if you've not made a mask before, you'll find that sewing one is time consuming and you'd have to have a pretty good supply of elastic and metal nose bridge strips if you're gong to throw it away after using it. Also, sewing paper is a little tricky for the inexperiences seamster/ress. In our patent pending masks, we line them with microfiber towel material which is very thick and fuzzy (much more so than cotton terrycloth) and has the potential, as noted in the 538 article citing said terrycloth, to snag things passing through. Whether it will snag a Covid-19 receptor has yet to be proven and will have to be clarified in our patent application.* The design also allows for the metal nose bridge piece to be removed, should you wish to cook it in the microwave. We don't recommend making your homemade mask with burlap or coarsely woven plastic sack cloth. It's really uncomfortable, doesn't conform to your face contours well and smells bad.  *As for our patent claim, I was lying. Sadly, an all too common practice in this crisis. We actually have no patent claim and the design open to all. If anyone would like a picture of the different masks we're making, pm me and I'll get a picture to you as well as the basic pattern.
------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 4:25pm
Actually, their bottom line suggested that breathability was probably more important than the filtration efficiency. This is what they stated near the bottom:
------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 4:26pm
Yah. Nate is a major data wonk. In spite of the difficulty, he will probably come up with something. ------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 6:37pm
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He’ll come up with a Monte Carlo model, similar to his other probabalistic models. If he could make one for the fiendishly complicated presidential primary process coronavirus should be a piece of cake.
It’ll crunch through 100k trials and tell us how likely we all are to die. 😱. Then he’ll probably put the code on a thumb drive and lock it in a drawer. 🤐 ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 6:39pm
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Our smooth cloth (like a sheet) and microfiber liner masks are pretty comfortable and easy to breath through. We could probably make them with just the micro fiber cloth, but they'd be ugly Costco towel yellow. The outer cover is a happy, colorful print that lifts the spirits of all but grumpy old men. In fact, the mask can be worn without the microfiber liner for those who enjoy taking a little more risk. One of the key parts of a mask is a good snug fit, so all the air entering passes through the cloth. The hardest part is around the bridge of one's nose. Some sort of a shape holding element is needed. We use a little metal strips that I fashioned from a Colombian soda cracker can. Speaking of Colombia, they have implemented a system in their larger cities that is similar to their pico y placa (a system of excluding cars by license plate number on certain days) for going out to take care of necessities in the general quarantine. People can go out and take care of necessities like buying groceries and such only on certain days based upon the last number of your "cedula" or national ID card. So if your number ends in 5 you can only go out of your home on Tuesday, and so on. It's keeping the contacts very limited in an otherwise extremely social country. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2020 at 6:41pm
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New mask guidance is finallyout, we’re now supposed to wear them when we go to the store or pharmacy. Lostagain your fortune is made. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 04 Apr 2020 at 9:44am
We found that we can make a cotton mask and cut a regular shop towel (the blue things on a roll) into a 1/4 sheet. We make the mask with a slip-in pocket, and just slip the 1/4 towel in as a "filter". After your outing, take out the towel and toss it; put the cotton mask in the laundry. There was a "no sew" plan for making a whole mask out of one of those towels just using staples and a couple pieces of elastic.
We looked around for suitable wire. I tried stranded THHN wire, but it was too flexible. I tried copper wire stripped from Romex, but the only thing I had was 12 gauge; way to stiff. Then we tried collar stays from the notions drawer; not quite long enough (they are 3 to 3-1/2 inches long). Finally, I pulled out some .032 stainless safety wire. A tiny bit on the too stiff side, but it works. I cut about a 6" length, and use needle nose pliers to make a little loop at each end to avoid the sharp end. ------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: offgrid
Date Posted: 04 Apr 2020 at 10:33am
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The worldometers coronavirus website has added a couple of columns on testing levels. Looks like the US testing level has really picked up and we now have run more tests than any other country. Because we’re a very large country that still only puts us at about 0.4% of total population, about mid pack. The countries with the highest testing levels other than a couple of really tiny ones are still only in the 1-2 percent range. ------------- 1994 Chinook Concourse 1995 RV6A Experimental Aircraft 2015 Rpod 179 - sold |
Posted By: GlueGuy
Date Posted: 04 Apr 2020 at 1:39pm
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I saw this last night. It's a trace of the lineage of the CV in Northern California. It has NOT been peer reviewed yet, so it is hot off the presses. Warning: It is relatively dense and technical. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20044925v1.full.pdf - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20044925v1.full.pdf A couple of interesting tidbits:
------------- bp 2017 R-Pod 179 Hood River 2015 Ford F150 SuperCrew 4WD 3.5L Ecoboost |
Posted By: lostagain
Date Posted: 04 Apr 2020 at 2:25pm
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For a simple mind like mine, the big takeaway was: to stop the spread of Covid-19 measures such as social distancing, stay at home policies, and avoidance of travel can reduce its spread. ------------- Never leave footprints behind. Fred & Maria Kearney Sonoma 167RB Our Pod 172 2019 Ford F-150 4x4 2.7 EcoBoost |